Ruthin Probus Club

NORMAN Jones, the chair of Ruthin Probus, was remembering his days as a master at Ysgol Brynhyfryd at the latest meeting.

He recalled a star pupil of his, a shy local girl.

His pleasure at renewing her acquaintance was fully apparent when he introduced her to give the talk to a very well-attended March meeting.

Dr Bethan Hughes went on to gain a first degree in chemistry from the University of Sheffield, an MSc in pollution and environmental control from the University of Manchester and a PhD on aviation technology targets and climate change from Manchester Metropolitan University.

She is now a research fellow in the Centre for Aviation, Transport and the Environment (CATE) at MMU.

CATE is funded to study the nature and impact of aviation transmissions on the environment, and therefore on climate change.

It advises the UK and EU Governments on policy relating to these matters and represents them on international technical working groups.

Dr Owen is co-chair of one such group specific to aircraft and engine emission certification.

Work is conducted under the auspices of the United Nations within the context of the International Civil Aviation Organisation’s ‘Uniting Aviation’ Project.

Dr Owen co-authored a paper in 2010 'Flying into the future: aviation emissions scenarios to 2050' and chose this as her topic for the Ruthin Probus meeting.

Although currently aviation is not the bête noire of annual global emissions it is often painted, overall at 2.8 per cent (international flights 2 per cent) of total CO2, it is not inconsequential.

Nor is concern confined to carbon as Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx) are also under the spotlight.

CO2 is more widely recognised by the public and is of particular concern for its centuries-long cumulative persistence in the atmosphere.

With aviation emissions, there is a further multiplying consequential in the form of the high altitude con-trails with which we are all familiar.

These can transform into cirrus clouds which have the effect of a warming impact of three times CO2 alone.

Coupling these factors with aviation growth projections means that, without serious policies for mitigation, the future of flying can look problematic.

As this work is undertaken within international fora actions and policies have to be negotiated within a political context, an objective has been agreed setting 2020 as the base-line for aviation emission levels within a context of 1C global warming above pre-Industrial Revolution levels.

The intention negotiated in the Paris Climate Accord is of restricting global warming to no more than 1.5C by 2050.

For this to be feasible so far as aviation is concerned, action will need to be taken on three fronts: aircraft technology advances, airline operational improvement and sustainable fuel development.

A chart showed how challenging this will be.

Hopes expressed for electric powered aircraft must be judged against the penalties of 60 times the weight and 20 times the volume implied when compared with aviation kerosene.

To round off her compelling talk, Bethan pointed out that people, nature and livelihoods are already seeing the impact of climate change.

A final chart compared assessed future levels of 1.5C and 2.0C, underlining how the gravity of the message could so easily become catastrophic, especially for coastal communities.

Giving a sincere vote of thanks on behalf of all present, Rob Killey recalled the early 1950s with coal-fired power stations and the consequent air pollution.

In those days, it took three days for him, as a soldier, to reach Suez by air, whereas now the search for greater speed of travel seemed inexorable.

He worried for our children's future.

On Wednesday, April 1, Richard Shackelford will talk on ‘the Motor Neurone Disease Association’.