DEAR Editor,

Since 2016, the FUW has called for the modelling of any proposed changes to Welsh agricultural policies, so if Welsh ministers really want to make decisions that are disastrous for rural businesses and employment they can at least do so with their eyes open.

To date, despite being fixated with wanting to introduce nigh on identical radical changes that are untried and untested, neither the Welsh nor English administrations have modelled the economic impacts of their plans.

With around 80% of Welsh farm income made up of direct support, and a similar proportion in many areas of England, this means the two administrations are doing the economic equivalent of rebuilding an engine blindfolded (although some have argued that they secretly know exactly what they are doing, and it is not pretty).

Meanwhile, recent weeks have seen the release of a number of analyses and modelling results in the EU that are of direct relevance to proposed changes in Wales and England.

According to an evaluation carried out by EEIG Agrosynergie, the money paid to farmers through the Common Agricultural Policy (which is to all intents and purposes still operating in Wales and England) plays an important role in terms of farm incomes and allowing farm businesses to cope with falls in market prices, contributing to stability.

With England set to cut farm payments by 20% this year, rising to 50% in 2024, English farmers and the rural businesses that rely on them are soon to find out just how valid that analysis is - and they are very much the guinea pigs for the type of changes Wales also has planned.

Concerns regarding the impact of these changes in England were raised in a surprisingly polite way last week by English farm leaders giving evidence to the UK parliament’s EFRA committee, but whether they remain so polite as farm incomes start to be hit after November remains to be seen.

The Agrosynergie analysis also looks at how some payments in the EU overcompensate farmers for below average incomes, finding that this is limited to 9% of small farms but reaches more than 30% for large farms.

These figures however are not valid for Wales, because in 2015 we not only capped farm payments but also introduced a redistributive payment system which moves money to support smaller farmers.

However, with the previous Welsh Government having strongly suggested it will do away with both payment capping and the redistributive payment principle under a new scheme, the FUW has again written to the Welsh Government highlighting that this would be a massive backwards social step for Wales - taking money away from those family farms which make the greatest contribution to our economy and Welsh society and handing it over to large landowners, companies and charities which are often absent landlords based over the border.

Also proposed in Wales and England is the final and complete decoupling of any link between farm support and food production, despite the growing focus on the need to produce healthy food more sustainably.

This is also a major concern highlighted repeatedly by the FUW, and the degree to which slamming the door on linking food producers with payments is shortsighted has been underlined in another modelling study, this time published by the European Public Health Alliance, which found that product-based subsidies can make an important contribution to increasing the supply of food products recommended in national dietary guidelines.

With a new Welsh Government and Senedd comes an opportunity for our politicians to take stock and change their approach. Let us hope that just such a change comes, through recognition that, rather than following England, we should make informed decisions based on data and modelling to create a Welsh policy with food production, social, environmental and economic principles at its heart - and that decisions based on what Mark Drakeford calls ‘vapid optimism’ should be avoided at all costs.

Regards,

Glyn Roberts,

FUW President